2026-09-06 18:22:24
Anonymous:
REF102 r3: add section 3b, the shape of the drop-off, answering the structural half of Clarity Q36 - where players leave, not just how many reach the end. Four ordered achievement sequences with per-step retention: Vampire Survivors holds 95.6 then 89.8 percent per step through its twenty-minute run and then loses two thirds at the ending (32.1); Cult of the Lamb and Noita erode steadily with no plateau; Pathogenic cliffs after boss one. Method note that matters: step retention is a ratio of two percentages over the same population, so Valve's undocumented denominator cancels exactly and the step figures are sound where the raw shares are not. Orders sourced for Noita (biomes) and Cult of the Lamb (bishops), ordinal by definition for Vampire Survivors, and inferred-and-labelled for Pathogenic. Refines Q36's supporting clause: an early complete beat is what the most successful comparable does, not a rarity. Nothing previously published changed.
reference/survivorlike market data.md ..
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# Reference — Survivorlike Market Data
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**REF102 · r2 · 2026-09-06 · Reference researcher (outside the recorded Team) · Reference, not a design proposal.**
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**REF102 · r3 · 2026-09-06 · Reference researcher (outside the recorded Team) · Reference, not a design proposal.**
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r3 adds §3b, the shape of the drop-off, answering the structural half of
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[Clarity Q36](/Hold%20The%20Flood/Clarity%20Questions). Step retention is a ratio over the same
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population, so §3a's undocumented-denominator caveat cancels there. Adds to §3a; nothing already
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published was changed. r1 and r2 are page history.
r2 adds §3a, completion rates from Steam's public achievement API — the column
[Clarity Q35](/Hold%20The%20Flood/Clarity%20Questions) and
[External Critique X19/X20](/Hold%20The%20Flood/External%20Critique) are all missing. It adds to §3;
@@ 247,6 251,106 @@
Whether any of this changes decision 4 is entirely PM's and the owner's call. It is offered because Q35
asked for exactly the context a reader without industry background cannot supply.
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## 3b. The shape of the drop-off
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§3a measured the endpoint: how many players ever reach an ending. It could not say **where along the way
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they leave**, which is the question [Clarity Q36](/Hold%20The%20Flood/Clarity%20Questions) is actually
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asking — *"what this game is for someone who plays four expeditions and stops. Do they get a complete
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small thing, or two thirds of a setup?"*
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Where a game's achievements form a **sequence**, that shape is measurable.
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> **Why this section is on firmer ground than §3a.** §3a's warning was that Valve never documented the
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> population these percentages are over. **Step retention is a ratio of two percentages over that same
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> population, so the unknown denominator cancels exactly.** If 84.0% reach marker A and 27.0% reach
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> marker B, then 32.1% of those who reached A went on to reach B — and that holds whatever N is. The
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> per-step figures below are therefore the most reliable numbers on this page. The raw shares still carry
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> §3a's caveat; the *steps* do not.
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### The sequences
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Orders are the games' own, not inferred from the numbers, except where marked.
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**Vampire Survivors** — markers are ordinal by definition (minutes survived), and the last is the ending:
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| Marker (the game's words) | Share | Of those who reached the step before |
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|---|---:|---:|
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| Survive 1 minute with any character | 97.8% | — |
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| Survive 10 minutes with any character | 93.5% | 95.6% |
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| Survive 20 minutes with any character | 84.0% | 89.8% |
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| **Defeat the final enemy in the Cappella Magna** | **27.0%** | **32.1%** |
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**Cult of the Lamb** — the four bishops are fought in a fixed order, Leshy → Heket → Kallamar → Shamura
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([Cult of the Lamb Wiki](https://cult-of-the-lamb.fandom.com/wiki/Bishops_of_the_Old_Faith)):
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| Marker | Share | Step |
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|---|---:|---:|
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| Defeat Leshy | 77.4% | — |
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| Defeat Heket | 54.3% | 70.2% |
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| Defeat Kallamar | 40.0% | 73.7% |
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| Defeat Shamura | 33.9% | 84.8% |
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**Noita** — the main path descends Coal Pits → Snowy Depths → Hiisi Base → Underground Jungle → The Vault
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→ Temple of the Art ([Noita Wiki: Biomes](https://noita.wiki.gg/wiki/Biomes)). The path continues to the
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Laboratory, which has no achievement of its own; "Victory" is the run's completion.
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| Marker | Share | Step |
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|---|---:|---:|
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| Reached Coal Pits | 72.5% | — |
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| Reached Snowy Depths | 59.3% | 81.8% |
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| Reached Hiisi Base | 37.2% | 62.7% |
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| Reached Underground Jungle | 23.0% | 61.8% |
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| Reached The Vault | 19.2% | 83.5% |
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| Reached Temple of the Art | 14.4% | 75.0% |
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| **Victory** | **10.0%** | 69.4% |
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**Pathogenic** — bosses. *The order here is **inferred from the shares alone**; I found no source stating
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the designed sequence, so treat this table as the weakest of the four:*
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| Marker | Share | Step |
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|---|---:|---:|
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| Defeat the Skin boss | 93.9% | — |
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| Defeat the Lung boss | 40.2% | **42.8%** |
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| Defeat the Heart boss | 27.5% | 68.4% |
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| Brain | 5.6% | 20.4% |
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### Three different shapes, and they are not the same product
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- **A complete beat early, then a cliff — Vampire Survivors.** Losses are trivial through the twenty-minute
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run (95.6%, then 89.8% per step), and then **two-thirds of the remaining players never see the ending**
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(32.1%). The whole satisfying unit is the run, and 84% get it. The ending is optional long-tail content.
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- **Steady erosion, no plateau — Cult of the Lamb and Noita.** Every step sheds 15–40%, with no stretch
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where the curve flattens. Nothing is delivered whole and early; the game is the descent.
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- **An early cliff — Pathogenic** (order caveat above): most of the loss happens immediately after the
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first boss, 42.8% carrying through.
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**Front-loading, measured without needing any order.** Two comparables put a great deal above the waterline
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early. Halls of Torment's fourteen most-earned achievements all sit between **83.8% and 99.1%**; Deep Rock
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Galactic: Survivor's between **61.3% and 99.1%**. Both games hand most of their players a lot of distinct
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completed things before any attrition bites.
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### Bearing on the question Q36 raises (inference, for the lead designer and PM)
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Q36 notes that the design's tier one lands at expeditions one to three and calls that *"a genuinely good
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structural choice which most of these comparables do not make."* The sequences above let that be checked,
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and they refine it in a way that is worth having before the sentence goes to the owner:
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**The early complete beat is not rare among these comparables — it is what the most successful one does.**
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Vampire Survivors delivers a whole, finishable unit to 84% of its players and puts its ending far out on a
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tail only 27% reach. Halls of Torment and Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor front-load similarly. The games that
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*don't* do it — Noita, Cult of the Lamb — are the ones with a smooth erosion curve and no plateau.
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So the structural point in Q36 stands, and the supporting clause is the part to drop: an early tier one is
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a good choice **because it matches what works**, not because it is unusual. And the second half of the
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finding is the one that bears on tier three: in every sequence measured here, **the last thing built is
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seen by a minority** — 10.0% in Noita, 27.0% in Vampire Survivors, 33.9% in Cult of the Lamb, 38.0% in
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Blue Prince (§3a). A design that puts its final choice about the Flood at expeditions eight to eleven is
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making a normal choice for this shelf; what the comparables suggest is that the *earlier* tiers carry the
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product for most buyers, and that is a claim the document can make with evidence rather than hope.
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None of this is a recommendation about where tier three should sit. It is the measurement Q36 said a
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reader without industry background could not supply.
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## 4. The refund policy, stated exactly
Design Document r2 §11 refers to *"a storefront refund window of two hours."* The actual policy has **two**
- Individual Steam store pages for user tags: [Vampire Survivors](https://store.steampowered.com/app/1794680/), [Brotato](https://store.steampowered.com/app/1942280/), [Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor](https://store.steampowered.com/app/2321470/), [Halls of Torment](https://store.steampowered.com/app/2218750/), [20 Minutes Till Dawn](https://store.steampowered.com/app/1966900/), [Backpack Battles](https://store.steampowered.com/app/2427700/), [Backpack Hero](https://store.steampowered.com/app/1970580/), [Noita](https://store.steampowered.com/app/881100/), [Cult of the Lamb](https://store.steampowered.com/app/1313140/), [Blue Prince](https://store.steampowered.com/app/1569580/), [Pathogenic](https://store.steampowered.com/app/3808690/)
- Steam Web API, `GetGlobalAchievementPercentagesForApp` (public, no key) and the public community stats pages at `steamcommunity.com/stats/<appid>/achievements/` — §3a
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- [Noita Wiki: Biomes](https://noita.wiki.gg/wiki/Biomes) — the main-path biome order used in §3b
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- [Cult of the Lamb Wiki: Bishops of the Old Faith](https://cult-of-the-lamb.fandom.com/wiki/Bishops_of_the_Old_Faith) — the fixed bishop order used in §3b
- [Blue Prince Wiki: Room 46](https://blueprince.wiki.gg/wiki/Room_46) · [GameSpot: reaching the Antechamber and Room 46](https://www.gamespot.com/gallery/blue-prince-antechamber-room-46-guide/2900-6426/) · [Game Rant: how to reach Room 46](https://gamerant.com/blue-prince-how-reach-room-46/) — that Room 46 is the stated objective, and that content continues past it
- [Steam community discussion on the achievement-percentage denominator](https://steamcommunity.com/discussions/forum/1/1779388024850166660/) — evidence that Valve has never documented it; cited as the reason §3a uses within-game ratios only
- [HowLongToBeat](https://howlongtobeat.com) — **still not reachable from this environment** (HTTP 403 to both the fetch tool and a direct request). Completion *times* remain unobtained; §3a answers the underlying question by a different measurement rather than by guessing at HLTB's numbers
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**Drift.** §3a's figures were taken across a few minutes; two calls minutes apart already differed in the
last decimal (Noita's most-earned achievement read 72.4% and 72.5%). Treat the final digit as noise.
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**What r3 changed.** Added §3b, the shape of the drop-off, after
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[Clarity Q36](/Hold%20The%20Flood/Clarity%20Questions) asked what the game is for a player who stops
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early — a question §3a's endpoints could not answer. Four ordered achievement sequences with per-step
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retention. Two orders are sourced (Noita's biomes, Cult of the Lamb's bishops), one is ordinal by
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definition (Vampire Survivors' minute markers), and one — Pathogenic's bosses — is **inferred from the
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shares alone and labelled in place as the weakest table in the section**. Nothing previously published
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was changed.
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**A note on §3b's reliability versus §3a's.** §3a rests on percentages over a population Valve has never
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defined. §3b's per-step figures are ratios of two such percentages over that same population, so the
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unknown cancels exactly and the step numbers are sound regardless. Where §3b quotes raw shares it
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inherits §3a's caveat; where it quotes steps it does not. This is stated in the section itself so nobody
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has to take it from the bookkeeping.
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**Corrections.** Kill any figure here by re-running its query and posting the result. That is the whole
