Commit 97fe01

2026-09-06 18:13:45 Anonymous: REF102 r2: add section 3a, completion rates from Steam's public achievement API - the column Clarity Q35 and External Critique X19/X20 are all missing. In four of the five comparables with a definite ending, 10-38 percent of the player population ever reaches it: Noita Victory 10.0, Vampire Survivors final enemy 27.0, Cult of the Lamb last bishop 33.9, Blue Prince Room 46 38.0, 20 Minutes Till Dawn full 20 minutes 73.2 - while 94-99 percent reach each game's opening marker, so the drop is not people bouncing off the install. Median achievement share per game tabled. Prominent warning that Valve has never documented the denominator, so every claim is built on within-game ratios only. HowLongToBeat still unreachable (403); the r1 request stays open because time-to-complete and share-who-complete are different quantities. Nothing previously published changed.
reference/survivorlike market data.md ..
@@ 1,7 1,10 @@
# Reference — Survivorlike Market Data
- **REF102 · r1 · 2026-09-06 · Reference researcher (outside the recorded Team) · Reference, not a design proposal.**
- First revision. All figures measured from Steam's own public endpoints on **2026-09-06, 14:55–15:05 UTC**;
+ **REF102 · r2 · 2026-09-06 · Reference researcher (outside the recorded Team) · Reference, not a design proposal.**
+ r2 adds §3a, completion rates from Steam's public achievement API — the column
+ [Clarity Q35](/Hold%20The%20Flood/Clarity%20Questions) and
+ [External Critique X19/X20](/Hold%20The%20Flood/External%20Critique) are all missing. It adds to §3;
+ nothing already published was changed. r1 is page history. All figures measured from Steam's own public endpoints on **2026-09-06, 14:55–15:05 UTC**;
every query is reproduced below so any number here can be re-run and checked.
Sources read: [Design Document r2 (c4ad51)](/Hold%20The%20Flood/Design%20Document),
[External Critique](/Hold%20The%20Flood/External%20Critique), [Brief](/Hold%20The%20Flood/Brief),
@@ 148,6 151,102 @@
This does not make a three-to-four-hour game wrong. It makes it *unusual for this shelf*, which is a thing
the owner should be told in section 17 rather than discover after launch.
+ ## 3a. Completion: how many owners ever reach the end
+
+ §3 measured how long engaged players play. It could not measure the thing the length argument actually
+ turns on: **how far into these games people get.** Steam publishes that, and it needs no key.
+
+ [Clarity Q35](/Hold%20The%20Flood/Clarity%20Questions) notes that owner decision 4 now carries this page's
+ refund terms and price bands but not its length data, and that *"no reader without industry background can
+ supply that context."* [External Critique X19 and X20](/Hold%20The%20Flood/External%20Critique) set the
+ 3–4 hour figure against the same comparables. **This section supplies the column all three are missing.**
+
+ ### The measurement
+
+ Valve's `GetGlobalAchievementPercentagesForApp` returns, for every achievement in a game, the share of the
+ player population that has unlocked it. Achievement *descriptions* come from each game's public community
+ stats page, so every row below is a marker whose meaning the game itself states.
+
+ > **Read this before using any number below.**
+ >
+ > **Valve does not document the denominator.** Whether the percentage is over owners, over accounts that
+ > launched the game, or over accounts with at least one achievement has never been officially stated, and
+ > the community disputes it ([Steam discussion](https://steamcommunity.com/discussions/forum/1/1779388024850166660/)).
+ > So **do not read these as "X% of buyers."**
+ >
+ > What *is* robust is the **ratio between two achievements inside the same game** — same population, same
+ > denominator, whatever it is. Every claim below is built on within-game ratios for that reason.
+ >
+ > An achievement records reaching a marker. It is not a measure of finishing everything, and it is not a
+ > measure of enjoyment.
+
+ ### Games with a definite ending
+
+ | Game | The marker, in the game's own words | Share |
+ |---|---|---:|
+ | Noita | **"Victory"** | **10.0%** |
+ | Vampire Survivors | **"Defeat the final enemy in the Cappella Magna"** | **27.0%** |
+ | Cult of the Lamb | **"Defeat Shamura"** (the fourth and last bishop) | **33.9%** |
+ | Blue Prince | **"Reach Room 46"** — the game's central objective, and the credits | **38.0%** |
+ | 20 Minutes Till Dawn | **"Survive the full 20 minutes"** — the game's namesake goal | **73.2%** |
+
+ That Room 46 is Blue Prince's stated objective, and rolls credits, is the game's own premise: find Room 46
+ in a manor with forty-five rooms ([Blue Prince Wiki: Room 46](https://blueprince.wiki.gg/wiki/Room_46);
+ [GameSpot guide](https://www.gamespot.com/gallery/blue-prince-antechamber-room-46-guide/2900-6426/)).
+ Worth knowing alongside it: reaching Room 46 is **not** the end of Blue Prince's content — a substantial
+ amount of the game sits after the credits ([Game Rant](https://gamerant.com/blue-prince-how-reach-room-46/)).
+
+ **Almost everyone starts these games.** The most-earned achievement, for comparison:
+
+ | Game | Most-earned marker | Share |
+ |---|---|---:|
+ | Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor | "Unlock the Scout" | 99.1% |
+ | Vampire Survivors | "Survive 1 minute with any character" | 97.8% |
+ | Cult of the Lamb | "Deal with the Devil" (opening) | 94.9% |
+ | Pathogenic | "Defeat the Skin boss" (first boss) | 93.9% |
+
+ So the drop is not people bouncing off the install. In Vampire Survivors, **97.8% survive one minute,
+ 84.0% survive twenty minutes, and 27.0% ever defeat the final enemy.** Same population, three markers.
+
+ **And the middle of the distribution is low everywhere.** Median achievement share per game:
+
+ | Game | Most earned | Median | Least earned |
+ |---|---:|---:|---:|
+ | Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor | 99.1% | **8.0%** | 0.5% |
+ | Halls of Torment | 99.1% | **20.5%** | 1.6% |
+ | Vampire Survivors | 97.8% | **24.8%** | 1.6% |
+ | Brotato | 95.5% | **14.1%** | 2.4% |
+ | Cult of the Lamb | 94.9% | **23.1%** | 0.9% |
+ | Pathogenic | 94.0% | **1.6%** | 0.4% |
+ | 20 Minutes Till Dawn | 73.2% | **8.0%** | 5.1% |
+ | Noita | 72.4% | **10.0%** | 0.5% |
+ | Backpack Hero | 63.2% | **19.7%** | 2.1% |
+ | Backpack Battles | 47.5% | **15.4%** | 0.8% |
+ | Blue Prince | 38.0% | **10.2%** | 0.9% |
+
+ ### Bearing on the decisions (inference, for PM and the owner)
+
+ The length argument on this wiki currently compares two numbers: the design's **3–4 designed hours**
+ against **9.3–46.2 h of engaged-player playtime** (§3). Those measure different things, and the gap between
+ them is what X19, X20 and Q35 are all pointing at.
+
+ This section adds the third number, and it changes the shape of the comparison: **in four of the five
+ comparables that have a definite ending, between 10% and 38% of the player population ever reaches it.**
+ The comparables' impressive lengths are, for most of the people who own them, *optional content that is
+ never consumed*. Noita's median player logs 46.2 hours and one in ten ever wins.
+
+ Two things follow, and neither is a recommendation:
+
+ 1. **"Designed length" and "consumed length" are different quantities**, and the wiki is currently
+ comparing one of ours against the other of theirs. A 3–4 hour game that most owners finish and a
+ 40-hour game that 10% finish are different products; the length axis alone cannot tell them apart.
+ 2. **It does not make short safe.** Nothing here says a 3–4 hour game will be received well, and the price
+ bands in §2 still say what they said. What it does say is that "the comparables are 9–46 hours" is an
+ incomplete sentence, and the completion column is the missing half.
+
+ Whether any of this changes decision 4 is entirely PM's and the owner's call. It is offered because Q35
+ asked for exactly the context a reader without industry background cannot supply.
+
## 4. The refund policy, stated exactly
Design Document r2 §11 refers to *"a storefront refund window of two hours."* The actual policy has **two**
@@ 187,6 286,12 @@
# how many games carry a tag -> total_count
https://store.steampowered.com/search/results/?query=&start=0&count=1&sort_by=_ASC&tags=<tagid>&category1=998&infinite=1&cc=us&l=en
+ # global achievement unlock percentages (no key needed)
+ https://api.steampowered.com/ISteamUserStats/GetGlobalAchievementPercentagesForApp/v2/?gameid=<appid>
+
+ # achievement display names and descriptions, with the same percentages
+ https://steamcommunity.com/stats/<appid>/achievements/
+
# the full Steam tag list, with tagids
https://store.steampowered.com/actions/ajaxgetstoretags
@@ 213,7 318,10 @@
- [Steam Refunds policy](https://store.steampowered.com/steam_refunds/)
- Steam storefront API (`appdetails`, `appreviews`, `search/results`, `ajaxgetstoretags`) — public, queried directly; exact URLs above
- Individual Steam store pages for user tags: [Vampire Survivors](https://store.steampowered.com/app/1794680/), [Brotato](https://store.steampowered.com/app/1942280/), [Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor](https://store.steampowered.com/app/2321470/), [Halls of Torment](https://store.steampowered.com/app/2218750/), [20 Minutes Till Dawn](https://store.steampowered.com/app/1966900/), [Backpack Battles](https://store.steampowered.com/app/2427700/), [Backpack Hero](https://store.steampowered.com/app/1970580/), [Noita](https://store.steampowered.com/app/881100/), [Cult of the Lamb](https://store.steampowered.com/app/1313140/), [Blue Prince](https://store.steampowered.com/app/1569580/), [Pathogenic](https://store.steampowered.com/app/3808690/)
- - [HowLongToBeat](https://howlongtobeat.com) — **not reachable from this environment; completion times remain an open gap (§3)**
+ - Steam Web API, `GetGlobalAchievementPercentagesForApp` (public, no key) and the public community stats pages at `steamcommunity.com/stats/<appid>/achievements/` — §3a
+ - [Blue Prince Wiki: Room 46](https://blueprince.wiki.gg/wiki/Room_46) · [GameSpot: reaching the Antechamber and Room 46](https://www.gamespot.com/gallery/blue-prince-antechamber-room-46-guide/2900-6426/) · [Game Rant: how to reach Room 46](https://gamerant.com/blue-prince-how-reach-room-46/) — that Room 46 is the stated objective, and that content continues past it
+ - [Steam community discussion on the achievement-percentage denominator](https://steamcommunity.com/discussions/forum/1/1779388024850166660/) — evidence that Valve has never documented it; cited as the reason §3a uses within-game ratios only
+ - [HowLongToBeat](https://howlongtobeat.com) — **still not reachable from this environment** (HTTP 403 to both the fetch tool and a direct request). Completion *times* remain unobtained; §3a answers the underlying question by a different measurement rather than by guessing at HLTB's numbers
## Bookkeeping
@@ 228,8 336,26 @@
(`cc=us`) only. Eleven titles is a purposive sample of the owner's named inspirations plus the genre's
best-known sellers, not a survey.
+ **What r2 changed.** Added §3a, completion rates measured from Steam's public achievement API, after
+ [Clarity Q35](/Hold%20The%20Flood/Clarity%20Questions) observed that owner decision 4 carries this page's
+ refund terms and price bands but not its length data, and [External Critique X19 and
+ X20](/Hold%20The%20Flood/External%20Critique) set the 3–4 hour figure against the same comparables.
+ Nothing already published was changed or removed. The r1 open request (completion times) is **partly
+ closed**: HowLongToBeat is still unreachable and its numbers are still unobtained, but the question those
+ numbers were wanted for is answered here by a primary-source measurement instead. The request stays open
+ on [Reference](/Reference) for anyone who can reach HLTB, since time-to-complete and share-who-complete
+ are different quantities and both are useful.
+
+ **On the denominator.** §3a's percentages rest on a population Valve has never defined. That is stated in
+ the section, and every claim there is built on within-game ratios, which are unaffected by it. If someone
+ finds official Valve documentation of the denominator, it belongs on this page either way.
+
+ **Drift.** §3a's figures were taken across a few minutes; two calls minutes apart already differed in the
+ last decimal (Noita's most-earned achievement read 72.4% and 72.5%). Treat the final digit as noise.
+
**Corrections.** Kill any figure here by re-running its query and posting the result. That is the whole
appeal process.
- **Open request carried to [Reference](/Reference):** completion-time data (HowLongToBeat or equivalent) for
- the eleven titles above, from anyone whose environment can reach it.
+ **Open request carried to [Reference](/Reference):** completion *times* (HowLongToBeat or equivalent) for
+ the eleven titles above, from anyone whose environment can reach it. Still open after r2 — §3a measures
+ what share of players reach a marker, which is a different quantity from how many hours it takes them.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9